Friday
May252012

Possible Tropical Storm Beryl Memorial Day Weekend?

Another Pre-Hurricane Season Named Storm?

Possible interesting weekend ahead weather-wise, as we could see our second pre-season tropical storm (Beryl) form off the southeast United States. The elongated and disorganized tropical disturbance that tracked just offshore Miami yesterday producing flooding, is now located northwest of the Bahamas and remains unimpressive this morning.

Updated 7:34pm - IR satellite image of a developing Invest 94L off the southeast coast. - May 25, 2012

Weather computer forecast models are in fairly good agreement of at least something either subtropical or fully warm core tropical developing over the Memorial Day weekend southeast of the Carolina's once again. Last week brought Tropical Storm Alberto that formed in the same region.

WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. - National Hurricane Center

Watching For Possible Development Late Weekend

The current hostile upper-level winds are forecast to begin relaxing later today and into Saturday, and this will allow the disturbance to get more organized on Sunday. A blocking high pressure system is forecast to build in ahead of the potential cyclone forcing it back west-southwestward. Right now, it is way too early to know if and how well developed this system could become, but I will definitely be closely watching over the long holiday weekend. If the system does develop into a more organized tropical storm and threatens northeast Florida or southeast Georgia, I might make the trip north to intercept the system.

I will update again over the weekend if things become more developed.

Update 3:00p ET - Latest visible satellite loops this afternoon show the first signs that the low pressure system beginning to slowly organize near 31N/76W. This will be a slow process over the next 48 hours as shear remains moderate, but it looks like it has slowed some in its forward motion to the northeast and trying to consolidate more. We'll continue to monitor to see if this is short-lived or more of a trend going into the evening.   Nevertheless, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina residents should keep an eye on this system as well.

Update 6:15p ET - Going into the early evening hours now, and the sun is setting over our invest tropical system. The last few visible images are showing continued slow development, with more curved deep convection near the low and mid-level center. Buoy's in the area continued to report winds gusting near gale force and pressures falling.

Visible satellite showing the recent improved overall structure to the developing storm.

Update 10:24p ET - The system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl at 11pm ET.

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