Saturday
Jun232012

Tropical Storm Debby In The Making For The Gulf?

Keeping An Eye On The Gulf of Mexico For Debby

Update 5:25 pm EDT: We now have our fourth named storm of the season. Tropical Storm Debby confirmed, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for the southeastern Louisiana coastline.  Debby looks to be a very slow moving storm through the weekend into next week and will need to be closely watched.

Update: 3:41 pm EDT: It looks like the National Hurricane Center will upgrade to Tropical Storm Debby at 5:00 pm EDT per incoming data. The system remains very disorganized at this hour, but expected to be upgraded with possible watches and warnings along the Gulf coast. Previous post below.

I have been spending my Saturday so far looking over the latest computer models, current satellite loops and surface data for the area of disturbed weather in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. This system is labeled Invest 96L, but soon could become Tropical Storm Debby if the right conditions prevail.

Visible satellite picture of developing Invest 96L in the Gulf of Mexico. - June 23, 2012

Currently, there is an ongoing recon flight mission into the system to see if we truly have a tropical cyclone. Everyone has been closely monitoring this system for the last few days when it first started its very slow trek northward out of the Caribbean Sea. As of this morning it is a little further north than what I was expecting, but definitely looking more organized, at least on the eastern portion of the system, with exposed low-level eddies rotating outward on the west side as convection continues to be sheared of to the east.

Recon will give us a better idea of what is going on inside the disturbance later this afternoon, and I'll have another update here on this post by the evening. 

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