Saturday
Jun232012

Tropical Storm Debby US Threat - No Chase Plans Yet

Not A Very Organized Tropical Storm Debby Tonight But Still A Threat

Update 11:07 pm EDT:  The latest advisory on Debby keeps her as a 50 mph storm, but the pressure is down now to 998mb making the system a little deeper. Also, the National Hurricane Center now develops Debby into a hurricane by Tuesday well south of Louisiana moving westward towards Texas. This is just a long-term outlook and things can change significantly that far out in the forecast, but it will be very important for everyone to keep tabs on Debby the this upcoming week.

A very disorganized Tropical Storm Debby continues to struggle with hostile wind-shear in the east-central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Debby has winds of 50 mph and is producing heavy rainfall across portions of central and south Florida this evening. Locations from Tampa to Fort Myers and Miami could see some impressive rain overnight and possible street flooding from training rain-bands. The last advisory on Debby had the cyclone stationary, and this will allow additional bands of heavy weather to affect the west Florida coastal counties.

Colored IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Debby pounding Florida with heavy rain and isolated severe weather. - June 23, 2012

Tornado Dangers In Bands Moving Onshore

Earlier in the day, several strong bands of storms associated with Debby's eastern circulation moved onshore southwest Florida producing a tornado in eastern Naples, FL. One person was hurt, along with several trees, power poles knocked down and some roof structure damage. Tornadoes can be common with tropical storms or hurricanes especially on the right- front side of the circulation embedded in the feeder bands moving onshore. 

As I write this post, there is another concerning embedded cell that is showing signs of rotation just offshore Sanibel-Captiva Island, and looks to near the coast not far from Cape Coral if it holds together. I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado warning issued by 9:00 pm EDT for the area up to Englewood. Everyone should pay attention overnight to any warnings issued for isolated storms rotating onshore.

The National Hurricane Center has Debby moving very slowly in the forecast over the next few days, and there remains a lot of uncertainty on the forecast track with such a disorganized system and flip-flopping computer models. It's a big guessing game right now, but everyone along the Gulf should pay close attention going into the new work week.

No Plans For A Debby Chase, Still Monitoring

As of right now, if Debby was to take a more eastern track as a tropical storm and cross the Florida peninsula, then I will likely chase the storm. If the landfall takes place outside of FL, then Debbie would have to be at least a minimal category 1 hurricane for me to make departure plans. I will keep you posted if I plan to hit the road.

Related Post(s):

Tropical Storm Debby In The Making For The Gulf?

Impressive Rainfall Totals From TS Debby Across Fla

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