Tropical Storm - Potential Hurricane Sandy Developing

South Florida Updates for Hurricane Sandy: Live Hurricane Sandy Updates through the weekend. - 10/24/12

Latest Update: Hurricane Sandy Prompts Tropical Storm Watches for Florida - 10/24/12

Also See: Kingston Jamaica Threatened From Expected To Be Hurricane Sandy - 10/23/12

Update: 6:50pm ET - The overall appearance of now Tropical Storm Sandy, continues to slowly improve on infrared satellite imagery this evening. Convection is slowly becoming more banded, with an increase of convection near the center. The water temperatures are very warm and the winds aloft are light, so we could see some more intensification overnight as Sandy moves little the next 12 hours.

Color Infrared Satellite pictures of recently upgraded Tropical Storm Sandy.

Update: 4:57pm ET - The National Hurricane Center has upgrade TD18 to Tropical Storm Sandy currently located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This makes Sandy the 9th tropical storm of the 2012 season.

Update: 4:23pm ET - Recon flight into TD18 has found the center further south than expected, along with possible tropical storm force winds. Waiting on the 5pm update from NHC/TPC to see if they upgrade to Tropical Storm Sandy.

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Initial Article - The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida has upgraded the large tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean Sea to Tropical Depression 18 at 11am ET this morning.

Visible satellite image of developing Tropical Storm Sandy in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. October 22, 2012

The depression is expected to become tropical storm and eventually hurricane Sandy, and threaten Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, and potentially the East Coast of United States late in the week if some of the models hold true. Several of the weather computer models are very bullish on intensity with the system, as it tracks north-northeast out of the Caribbean and along the East Coast transitioning into a hybrid system by Thursday.

It is way too early to know the outcome of this developing storm system, and recon is in route to get a better fix on the center of circulation well south of Jamaica today. The current recon mission will give us better observations of intensity and movement of the center, which will also get ingested into later model runs. In the short-term, the main focus is on the intensity and how far west the tropical cyclone drifts before beginning its northward turn for Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahama Islands.

The official forecast track as of the 11 AM of advisory this morning keeps a tropical storm / possible hurricane Sandy well east of Florida during the week, but gusty winds and high seas are expected along the Florida East Coast nevertheless due to the tight pressure gradient that is expected.

Will continue to keep close tabs on developing Sandy throughout the week, and will update here as things change...so check back.

Hurricane Rafael Passing Safely East of Bermuda

Windy night in Bermuda, but no hurricane force winds expected.

Category 1 Hurricane Rafael, with winds of 85mph, is currently racing north-northeastward to the east of the beautiful island of Bermuda. Tropical storm winds are expected tonight in Bermuda as Rafael passes about 130 miles to the east of the island over the open Atlantic Ocean. Outside of some gusty winds and rain-bands, Bermuda should only have to worry about extremely rough seas the next 24-48 hours.

Rafael is tracking northward near 26mph, and is expected to increase in forward speed all while beginning to slowly weaken overnight and on Wednesday. This late season hurricane peaked out at 85mph, and should transition into an extratropical cyclone by Thursday only being an issue for shipping lanes in the North Atlantic.

Hard to believe we've reached the "R" name in this years hurricane name list, making Rafael the ninth hurricane of the Atlantic season. Last week, Tropical Storm Patty was the eighth tropical storm of the season, but Patty had an extremely short-lived lifecycle just east of the Bahamas due to strong wind shear.

Could we see a tropical storm or hurricane "Sandy" develop in the Caribbean Sea next week?

Weather forecast computer models have been hinting at a potential tropical system to develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for next week and track northward. This is way out in the forecast and errors are very large this far out. But, you also can't ignore that several of the models due want to develop an area of low pressure in the same general region of the Caribbean. 

History shows that in mid-to-late October the Caribbean can be a breeding ground for some strong tropical storms or hurricanes, and the model trends and satellite loops will have to be watched closely going into the weekend.